Why “waiting it out” is the riskiest strategy right now.
I was recently having lunch with a colleague of mine. She’s a well-known publicist for bars and restaurants. We were having a broad conversation about the state of the industry and she said off-handedly that many of her clients were still just holding on, waiting for the industry to course-correct and get back to pre-pandemic numbers. I have to admit, I was a little shocked that operators were still under the mindset that this is eventually going to right itself and that here is still this belief that customer traffic, margins and drinking habits would return to “normal” in the not so distant future.
Yikes. That version of “normal” isn’t coming back. And the longer operators and brands wait for it, the harder this industry becomes.
In the book, “Good to Great,” Jim Collins (author / researcher) describes what he calls the Stockdale Paradox: the ability to hold two beliefs at once — unwavering faith that you will succeed, paired with the discipline to confront brutal reality.
The concept is named after Admiral Jim Stockdale, who survived eight years as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. When asked who didn’t make it, he famously replied: “The optimists!” Not because optimism is bad — but because false optimism collapses when it meets reality. The ones who survived believed deeply in their eventual freedom — while fully accepting how hard the road would be and adapting to it.
Today, hospitality is facing its own version of that test.
The Post-Pandemic Reality
For decades, our industry has been remarkably resilient. We’ve weathered inflation spikes, supply chain breakdowns, labor shortages, shifting consumer tastes. Each time, we adapted. We innovated. We moved forward. And we held onto a core belief: hospitality always survives.
That belief is still true, but what’s different now is this: the cultural shift has changed coupled with several other factors that are giving those changes even more momentum.
What Resilient Operators Are Doing Differently
The strongest businesses I see working right now are not waiting for recovery.
They are:
• Re-evaluating who they are truly serving
• Rethinking menu architecture
• Integrating non-alcoholic and functional options with intention
• Designing experiences, not just offerings
• Building community, not just transactions
• Stress-testing margins and formats now — not later
They’re asking uncomfortable questions:
Who is our core guest today and who will it be in the next 5-10 years?
How are we adapting for them?
Are we still operating on outdated assumptions?
And where and how are we willing to evolve?
It’s about expanding relevance.
A Historical Perspective
We’ve been here before.
Nearly a century ago, alcohol faced a massive cultural reckoning. Prohibition didn’t happen overnight. It followed years of shifting public attitudes, political realignment, and changing social norms.
I am not suggesting we are headed for anything like Prohibition. We’re not. But we are in the middle of another long-term cultural recalibration around consumption, health, identity, and lifestyle.
Those shifts don’t reverse quickly. They compound and evolve.
What Comes Next
Over the coming months, I’ll be exploring several forces that are reshaping hospitality in real time, including:
• Generational changes in drinking and socializing
• The rise of functional and alternative beverages
• Health-driven behavior shifts
• The impact of GLP-1 medications on appetite and spending
• The economics of nostalgia and “little treat” culture
Each of these deserves serious attention.
Together, they can inform a new operating environment.
The Bottom Line
The future of hospitality is not bleak, but it is different. The winners in this era will not be the most optimistic, but they will be the most clear-eyed. They will believe deeply in what they are building — while refusing to romanticize the past.
That is the Stockdale Paradox.
And right now, it is the most important leadership skill in this industry.
This article was written by Kim Hassarud. More of her insights can be found on her Substack. You can also read the original version of this article here
Waiting is not a strategy. Adaptation is. Engage SSP’s Industry Experts to reimagine your concept, strengthen your economics, and build momentum for what’s next.